Superforecasting is a fun read with important advice for business leaders as well as us professional forecasters. The acclaimed book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner describes a forecasting ...

Many business decisions hinge on fact-based predictions of the future, and careers are made or broken by the outcomes. No wonder, then, that companies value “expertise” at all levels – after all, more ...

The prime minister's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has told journalists to "read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don't know what they're talking about". His ...

Many of us know Tetlock for his work on expert political judgement - research that concluded that most commentators, pundits and prognosticators (and bloggers) are no more accurate than a ...

In a fiercely competitive world, active managers are constantly looking for ways to advance their performance edge. Becoming a better forecaster is a good place to start. If you just look at averages, ...

We all crave knowledge of the future. Is it going to rain this weekend? Where will the equity markets be in a year? Next week? Five minutes from now? Predictive models, many using big data and ...

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or ...

In finance, a good forecast can mean the difference between bumper earnings and bankruptcy. The need for an accurate outlook is leading some firms to a novel and increasingly popular technique for ...